Fifty-three percent of agricultural workers that recently responded to a confidential federal survey admitted to being in the U.S. illegally — but officials believe the true number is about 30 points higher.

Pine Grove orchardist Gary Willis took a look at the new statistic and began to worry about a major picker shortage during the 2008 harvest season. He based that concern on new immigration enforcement measures that, tied to the high rate of illegal aliens, could keep the majority of workers in Mexico.

“If we assume the federal numbers are even close to being right, we could be left with fruit hanging on the trees because there’s not going to be anyone around to pick it,” said Willis.

He and other farmers could soon have to start firing laborers who are identified as illegal aliens or face penalties. The Bush Administration set up a plan last year to have farmers enact existing laws after Congress failed to pass reform measures. Under that plan, which has been on hold, workers have to prove legal residency if they receive a “no match” letter about their identification from the Social Security Administration.

Willis said workers will not be allowed to use disputed documents, such as a driver’s license or birth certificate, for verification. He said that might be the only paperwork many individuals possess and further bureaucratic snarls are likely since it is common in the Hispanic culture for families to have several surnames. He said these names frequently get mixed up in government records, which could cause an individual to erroneously receive a “no match” warning.

In addition to these potential problems, Willis said laborers who speak little English are likely to have difficulty appealing their residency status to the state Department of Human Services and SSA.

“We have success story after success story about Hispanic workers who come here and do good things for the community,” said Willis. “But, if they can’t get a job here, they are going to pack up their family and go back home and we can’t survive without them.”

Last week, he informed his 27-member work crew about the pending regulations and asked them to double-check their documentation.

“I told them that I had taken everything that they gave me at face value but this was coming down the line and they needed to get ready for it,” said Willis, who primarily grows pears on his 300-acre farm.

He has decided not to chance a picker shortage and has joined with other members of the Northwest Growers Association to import foreign guest workers. Willis said the federal H-2A Program, which provides temporary visas to laborers, is packed with regulations and expenses but almost guarantees that he’ll add 20 employees to the crew for harvest.

“I am not willing to gamble, as a grower, on my workforce,” he said.

Willis said orchardists can only quality for H-2A if they provide housing that meets stringent federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration standards. He has already taken steps to comply with detailed rules that range from a requirement of 100 square feet per person in a bunkhouse to the provision of bedding and cooking utensils. He believes many smaller tree fruit operations would find some of these conditions unaffordable.

In addition to housing regulations, Willis must agree to these H-2A guidelines:

• To avoid discrimination challenges, he must advertise picker jobs in the western region of the U.S. about 45 days before harvest season begins. He then has to hold a position for any applicant, even if that individual never shows up to work.

• Once he can demonstrate a potential deficit of laborers, NWGA will send a recruiter to Mexico because individual farmers are not allowed to conduct personal interviews. Qualifying workers must pass a criminal background check in the U.S. and are unlikely to be approved for entry into the U.S. if they have even a past driving infraction.

• Guest laborers must be guaranteed a daily wage of $9.97 per hour, even if their production doesn’t earn that much.

• The contract requires that participating H-2A farmers pay the cost of guest worker transportation to and from Mexico. Willis will join with other growers in the region growers to alleviate some of those costs.

Willis said H-2A farmers face a potential risk of being sued by a laborer if there is even a perceived violation of the contract. He does not foresee many frivolous legal challenges since guest workers are provided with an opportunity to earn money without fear of deportation. Willis said farmers can recoup some of their expenses under H-2A by not paying state taxes, as well as Medicare and Social Security benefits.

“No individual farmer can do this on his own; to try almost guarantees that you will be sued because undoubtedly you are going to make a mistake somewhere,” said Willis, who will rely on the experience and expertise of NWGA, which has been involved in the program for years.

He said it is also important to trust other farmers involved in the H-2A contract because a breach of contract suit can leave everyone financially liable.

Data compiled by NWGA shows that 5,912 of the 6,717 H-2A applications submitted by farmers in 2006 were certified by the federal government. About 59,112 jobs were provided, with 826 of these in Washington state. Willis believes that other farmers in the Hood River Valley will also end up enrolling in H-2A unless Congress comes up with a guest worker program that is less cumbersome and costly.

“This is definitely not the way that I’d prefer to do business but if farmers can’t get their crops to market then it is going to hurt this economy in ways that might not be realized until it’s too late,” said Willis.